Las inversiones de los gobiernos en los bancos

Se ha hablado mucho sobre las "ayudas" de los gobiernos a los bancos, es interesante unos meses después ver cómo está la situación:

Agosto 23, 2009:

- Switzerland, which sold its 9 per cent UBS stake for a SFr1.2bn ($1.1bn) gain last week.

- US government, by contrast, is sitting on a paper profit of almost $11bn on its 34 per cent shareholding in Citigroup

--> The government said it had earned an annualised return of 23 per cent from its $10bn investment in Goldman Sachs under Tarp. In June, Goldman returned the $10bn and later paid another $1.1bn to buy back warrants attached to Tarp aid. Morgan Stanley, American Express and other banks have done the same, leaving taxpayers with substantial profits.

- The UK is still sitting on the biggest losses – about £3.3bn ($5.5bn) – relating to the government’s 43 and 70 per cent stakes in Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland respectively.

- Germany 25 per cent stake in Commerzbank’s common equity is now worth only 2 per cent less than the €1.8bn ($2.6bn) the German government paid for it.

Fuente: Financial Times Aug. 23

Ideas sobre bonos

Siguiendo los posts del usuario TenesseIndependent, se adjuntan a continuación sus ideas sobre la selección de bonos:

Once I complete that process, I want to understand the bond that I am contemplating buying. Some of this process is discussed in earlier posts:

Investment Process Part II: Bonds and Bond Like Investments

the investment process/links to further information on canadian energy or royalty trusts

To summarize, you have to read the prospectus to answer some key questions:

1. Is there a maturity date!!!!!!!! And if so, when is it. A long bond has more risk than a short bond. A perpetual bond is always viewed unfavorably which necessitates a far lower weight by that factor alone. That is one reason why my positions in European hybrids are small.

2. What is the priority of the bond or bond like investment: Equity preferred stock, junior bond, senior bond or secured debt ( a few secured debt issues are traded as exchange traded bonds Exchange Traded Bonds:)

3. Is a deferral permitted? If so, for how long? A junior bond will generally be cumulative. Many, though not all, equity preferred shares would be non-cumulative. So, you want to know about cumulative vs. non-cumulative too. Cumulative is always the better option than non-cumulative. No deferral allowed-period-is always better than deferral is permitted if certain preconditions for deferral are met.

4. If a deferral is permitted, what are the conditions that must be in place before it would be a legal deferral? Usually this would be an elimination of dividend payments on a Junior Security.

5. How frequent are the payments?

6. How are the payments taxed in the U.S.? Qualified dividends or interest?

7. What are the credit ratings from the 3 firms, and the trend of ratings and are any negative watches in effect?

8. are there any usual tax issues associated with the security that might dictate whether the security needs to be bought in a retirement account for a U.S. investor. The clearest type of such cases would be a zero coupon bond or a TIP.

9. can I make money in two ways by buying at a significant discount to par value, which became a key consideration for me when I started to follow this process in October 2008.

10. It is critical to stay involved researching the company after an individual bond position is taken.

Su blog es habitualmente muy interesante, se puede seguir en:

http://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/

Seguiendo las emisiones convertibles y preferentes

Tres emisones a seguir, además de las ya habituales AFF, AKF, DKT, ISG y AEV

XL Capital Ltd, 10.75% Equity Security Units due 8/15/2011 Ticker Symbol: XL-Y CUSIP: G98255600 Exchange: NYSE

Security Type: Mandatory Convertible Security

Legg Mason Inc., 7.00% Equity Units due 6/30/2011
Ticker Symbol: LMI CUSIP: 524901303 Exchange: NYSE

Security Type: Mandatory Convertible Security

El Paso Energy Capital Trust I, 4 3/4% Trust Convertible Preferred Securities
Ticker Symbol: EP-C CUSIP: 283678209 Exchange: NYSE

Security Type: Traditional Convertible Preferred Stock

Siguiendo la linea

Después de las malas vibraciones producidas por los errores de hace un par de semanas, la evolución de los mercados ha llevado buenas sensaciones.

La deuda de Ambac y AIG ha dado muy buenas revaloraciones, pudiendo liquidar parcialmente la de AIG con plusvalías, en el caso de Ambac se siguen con atención el valor para evitar perderlo todo de nuevo.

Durante las próximas semanas se buscará salir lo mejor posible de algunas posiciones con poco recorrido como Nokia o 3M, posiblemente subiendo peso en P&G y reentrando en apuestas a largo plazo como J&J.

Se intentará tomar una posición en un ETF a la contra para buscar protección ante posibles bajadas durante los próximos meses, y así ahorrar las comisiones y trabajo de deshacer y hacer posiciones. He mirado la opción de Lyxor pero buscaré otras.